Markets and Macro is Gyre Research's research on economic and financial time series: Markets and Macro Quarterly, the deep study four times a year, and Markets and Macro Monthly, a short note in the other eight months. Every finding is measured, checked against chance, and can be explored in Gyre's free Covariance Calculator.
Markets and Macro Quarterly
January, April, July and October, after the US advance GDP release
The deep study: daily market series, monthly economic series and the quarterly series (growth, investment, house prices, government debt), with every lead, lag and break tested against chance and confirmed on years not used to find it.
Markets and Macro Monthly
The eight months without a Quarterly
A short note after the study's monthly update: what moved, which leads still hold, and how our earlier notes held up.
Latest issue · Markets and Macro Quarterly
Markets and Macro Quarterly, October 2026
Data through · Published
In brief
- US stocks no longer tell you what Tokyo will do next morning. When US energy stocks rose during the New York day, Japan's Nikkei 225 tended to rise at the next open; over the last 12 months that link fell from +0.42 to −0.06, the largest 12-month drop on record. Section 4.4
- A “safe” part of the stock market has been behaving like a bond. Consumer Staples shares have been falling when interest rates rise, more sharply than in 99% of their history since 1999; part of this is a more volatile market rather than a lasting change. Section 4.2
- Treasuries stopped cushioning stock falls. Since the Fed began raising rates in 2022, the S&P 500 and the 10-year yield went from moving clearly together (+0.36) to about no relation (−0.10), so falling stocks no longer bring rising bond prices. Section 4.7
- Bonds and foreign holdings now tend to lose at the same time. Rising US rates now come with a stronger dollar (−0.08 before, +0.31 since 2021), so when rates jump, bonds fall and the stronger dollar shrinks the value of unhedged foreign holdings. Section 4.7
- Real estate stocks now track mortgage rates far more closely. The link went from weak (−0.11 to 2020) to strong (−0.62 in 2021–23, −0.51 since). Section 4.8
- Expected, not found: a turning point at the pandemic. The data date the stock-bond turn to 1 April 2022 and the rate-dollar turn to 30 March 2022, when the Fed began raising rates. Section 4.7
- Expected, not found: economic data that warns ahead of US stock moves. None of the indicators tested leads US stocks once clustered calm and stormy spells are allowed for; across the study, 1,280 of 1,956 findings of the ordinary test no longer held. Section 4.9
- Expected, not found: energy as an early signal. Of 23 energy leads tested, only one kind held: the price of oil gives about two months' notice of the next US consumer price figure. Section 4.3
- Expected, not found: relationships breaking in a turbulent year. Over the last 1, 3 and 6 months nothing moved outside its own history by more than chance alone would produce (139 flags against 119 by chance). Section 4.2
- Explore your own ideas for free: every relation in this paper, and any pair of your own, can be measured in Gyre's free Covariance Calculator at gyreresearch.com/covariance.
Free to read and share: each issue is published under CC BY 4.0. Not investment advice.
How our notes held up
Each confirmed finding in an issue ends with a "For your consideration" note: an observation about risk, never a trade. Every note is stored as a checkable statement (the relation, what we expect, over what horizon), and every later issue scores the earlier notes against what markets actually did, hits and misses alike.
The track record starts with the next issue: Markets and Macro Quarterly, October 2026, is the first issue, so there is nothing to score yet.
All issues
Newest first. Each issue can be read here in full or downloaded as a PDF; a corrected issue keeps every earlier version.
- Markets and Macro Quarterly, October 2026current issue · Published Read onlinePDF
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