Sector & Industry Rotation: daily commentary archive

12 trading days, October 6, 2026 to October 21, 2026, newest first. Each is the commentary published with the page that day. This analysis was created with the assistance of large language model technology. Each describes that day's results; none is a forecast or investment advice.

October 2026

October 21, 2026

October 21, 2026: sectors read Calm at 0.272 while industries stay in Rotation at 0.718

On October 21, 2026 the sector-grain rotation probability stood at 0.272, down from 0.63 on October 20, putting the 11 sectors in the Calm state. The industry-grain probability eased to 0.718 from 0.78 but remains above the 0.70 Rotation threshold, so leadership is reordering within sectors rather than across them. The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on its second day, with a 14% chance of confirming. Rotation intensity is Quiet at the 10th percentile of its history since 1992.

Both grains show a rising ten-day direction (sectors +0.296, industries +0.034), even though both probabilities fell from October 20.
Information Technology led the sector leaderboard with a +0.61% residual return and 65% breadth; Communication Services was last at -2.0% with 10% breadth.
Information Technology Services topped the industries rotating in with a trend score of 15.7, while Semiconductor Equipment & Materials led those rotating out at -19.7.
Among the industries rotating out, all 14 Semiconductors members rose on the last day; among those rotating in, no Insurance Brokers or Healthcare Plans members did.
In the backtest, the probability beat its benchmarks (Brier skill 0.404, held-out 0.203), but the tests on past sector leaders as a guide (S6) and on the step-aside sector-fund strategy (S7, 8.2% a year vs 8.2%) were Not supported.

The industry-grain reading is descriptive only, with no measured forward-looking edge, and the backtest does not show that acting on either probability improved sector-fund returns.

October 20, 2026

Sector rotation probability eases to 0.63 on October 20, 2026, while the industry grain stays in Rotation at 0.78

On October 20, 2026, the sector-level probability that the S&P 500 is rotating stood at 0.63, in the Elevated band, down from 0.678 the previous day but rising over ten days. At the industry grain the probability rose to 0.78 from 0.718, keeping it in the Rotation band, with the ten-day direction flat. The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on day 1, with about a 9% chance it confirms. Rotation intensity was Quiet, at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992.

Health Care led the sector leaderboard with a market-denoised residual return of 2.27% and breadth of 0.9; Communication Services was last at -1.19%, with Information Technology second to last at -0.76%.
Information Technology Services topped the industries rotating in with a trend score of 14.3, and all 9 of its members were up on the last day; Biotechnology, Healthcare Plans and Insurance Brokers followed with scores between 10.3 and 10.8.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials headed the industries rotating out with a score of -19.1, with 20% of its 5 members up on the last day; Computer Hardware, Communication Equipment, Scientific & Technical Instruments and Semiconductors also scored negative.
In the walk-forward backtest, the probability scored a Brier skill of 0.404 (held-out 0.203) and an AUC of 0.942, and after crossings above 0.50 a rotation was confirmed within 20 trading days in 56% of 219 cases versus 20% after an average day.
Two tests were not supported: last month's sector leaders were not a measurably worse guide in rotation states, and the step-aside sector-fund strategy returned 8.2% a year, the same as always holding the 3 leaders, against 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund.

The industry-grain reading describes current conditions only and has no measured forward-looking edge, and none of these figures show why leadership is reordering or which sectors will lead next.

October 19, 2026

Sector rotation probability rises to 0.678 on October 19, 2026; industry grain holds in Rotation at 0.718

On October 19, 2026 the sector-level rotation probability rose to 0.678 from 0.614 on October 16, keeping the 11-sector grain in the Elevated band. It is up 0.29 over ten days. The industry-level probability was unchanged at 0.718, in the Rotation band, and up 0.046 over ten days across the 42 industries tracked. Rotation intensity, the volume-spike and turbulence gauge, sits in the Quiet band at the 10th percentile of its history since 1992, and the young-rotation flag shows no candidate run open.

Consumer Discretionary led the sector leaderboard with a market-denoised residual return of 2.17%, although only 29% of its stocks rose; Information Technology followed at 0.5% with 72% breadth.
Utilities ranked last at -2.03% with 0% breadth, and Real Estate was next to last at -1.29% with 3% breadth.
Information Technology Services had the highest industry trend score at 11.7, ahead of Discount Stores (9.4) and Insurance Brokers (9.3); 0% of Insurance Brokers' six members rose on the last day.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (-20.7) and Computer Hardware (-16.6) had the weakest trend scores, even though 80% and 100% of their members rose on the last day.
In the walk-forward backtest, the probability's main tests are marked Supported: a Brier skill score of 0.405 (held-out 0.203) and an AUC of 0.942. The test on whether past sector leaders are a worse guide in rotation states is Not supported, as is the leaders strategy that steps aside at 0.50, which returned 8.2% a year against 8.2% for always holding the leaders.

The industry probability is descriptive only and has no measured forward-looking edge, and the backtest found no evidence that switching sector holdings on the probability improved returns.

October 16, 2026

Sector rotation probability rises to 0.614 (Elevated) on October 16, 2026, while the industry grain eases to 0.718

On October 16, 2026, the calibrated probability that the S&P 500 is rotating across its 11 sectors rose to 0.614 from 0.381 the day before, moving into the Elevated band. At the industry grain the probability fell to 0.718 from 0.88 but stays in the Rotation band, and both grains are rising over ten days. The rotation intensity gauge reads Quiet, at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992, and the young-rotation flag shows no candidate run open.

The sector probability's ten-day direction is rising, up 0.204, and the industry probability's is rising, up 0.051; the page marks Rotation from 0.70 and calm below 0.50.
Energy led the sector leaderboard with a 2.01% market-denoised residual return and breadth of 1.0, followed by Utilities at 1.58% and Materials at 1.49%.
Communication Services (-1.13%) and Information Technology (-0.74%) were the only sectors with negative residual returns, and Information Technology breadth was 0.23.
Among the 42 industries tracked, Insurance Brokers and Oil & Gas E&P led with trend scores of 10.3; Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (-23.2) and Computer Hardware (-19.5) were the weakest, with no members up on the last day.
In the walk-forward backtest, the probability's skill tests (S1, S2a, S2b, S4, S5) are reported as Supported, while S6 (last month's sector leaders as a guide in rotation states) and S7 (the step-aside sector-fund strategy, 8.2% a year vs 8.2% for always holding the 3 leaders, against 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund) are Not supported.

These figures describe the current rotation state, not its causes, and the page states the industry grain has no measured forward-looking edge while its backtest does not support using sector leadership to guide next month's returns.

October 15, 2026

Industries in rotation at 0.88 on October 15, 2026, while the sector probability eased to a calm 0.381

On October 15, 2026, the two grains of this page disagreed. The sector rotation probability fell to 0.381 from 0.459 the day before, keeping sectors in the Calm state, though it is still up 0.113 over ten days. The industry probability rose to 0.88 from 0.78, deep in the Rotation state, with leadership reordering broadly within sectors. Rotation intensity was Quiet, at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992.

Health Care led the sector leaderboard with a 1.81% market-denoised residual return and 90% breadth. Energy was last at -1.41%, with none of its stocks up.
Information Technology lagged at -1.05% with 44% breadth, and three tech-linked industries sit among the industries rotating out: Computer Hardware (score -21.6), Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (-21.3) and Semiconductors (-9.1).
Healthcare Plans topped the industries rotating in with a score of 10.6, followed by Household & Personal Products (9.2) and Discount Stores (9.1).
Oil & Gas E&P ranks fifth among industries rotating in on its trend score of 7.9, even though none of its 9 members rose on the latest day.
The young-rotation flag shows no new rotation starting, because no candidate run is open.
In the backtest, the sector probability's primary test is supported, with a Brier skill score of 0.406. The tests on whether rotation weakens last month's sector leaders as a guide and on the 3-leader switching strategy were not supported, with annual returns of 8.2% versus 8.2%.

The industry-level rotation reading describes what is happening now and has no measured forward-looking edge, and nothing on this page explains why leadership is shifting.

October 14, 2026

Industry grain stays in Rotation at 0.78 while the sector probability jumps to 0.459, still in the Calm band

On October 14, 2026, the industry-level rotation probability rose to 0.78 from 0.718 on October 13, keeping the 42 tracked industries in the Rotation state. The 11-sector probability climbed to 0.459 from 0.073 the day before. That is still below the 0.50 line, so the sector state remains Calm, and the page notes stable sector leadership with dispersion well below episode thresholds. Rotation intensity sits in the Quiet band at the 10th percentile of its history since 1992.

The sector probability's ten-day direction is rising (change of 0.093), and the industry probability's ten-day direction is also rising (change of 0.12).
On the sector leaderboard, Health Care led with a residual return of 2.74% and breadth of 0.93, followed by Consumer Staples at 2.33% with every stock up. Information Technology was last at -0.84% with breadth of 0.29.
The industries rotating in are led by Oil & Gas E&P (score 11.0), Discount Stores (8.7) and Information Technology Services (7.8). Healthcare Plans and Household & Personal Products had all members up on the day.
The industries rotating out are led by Computer Hardware (score -16.2), Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (-14.4) and Semiconductors (-7.2). Only 7% of the 14 Semiconductors members rose on the day.
The young-rotation flag shows no new rotation starting, because no candidate run is open.
In the backtest, the probability's primary skill tests are Supported. The tests on whether past sector leaders are a worse guide during rotation and on a step-aside sector-fund strategy are Not supported; that strategy returned 8.2% a year, the same as always holding the leaders.

The page states that the industry-grain reading describes current conditions only and has no measured forward-looking edge, and today's figures do not explain why leadership is shifting.

October 13, 2026

Sectors calm at 0.073 on October 13, 2026, while the industry grain holds in Rotation at 0.717

On October 13, 2026, the sector-level rotation probability fell to 0.073 from 0.178 the day before, keeping the 11 sectors in the Calm state, though it is still described as rising over ten days. Beneath the sectors, the industry probability was unchanged at 0.717, above the 0.70 Rotation threshold and rising over ten days. The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on day 4, with a 40% chance it confirms. Rotation intensity sits in the Quiet band at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992.

Energy led the sector leaderboard with a market-denoised residual return of 1.7% and every one of its stocks up; Health Care trailed at -1.35% with 40% breadth.
Among industries rotating in, Oil & Gas E&P had the top trend score at 11.1, with all 9 members up on the last day, followed by Information Technology Services at 8.4.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (-12.8) and Computer Hardware (-12.3) had the weakest industry trend scores; Semiconductors also scored negative at -5.2 even though 93% of its members rose on the last day.
The page notes the industry grain is descriptive only and has no measured forward-looking edge.
In the walk-forward backtest, five tests were supported, including a Brier skill score of 0.407 (held-out 0.208). Two were not supported: past sector leaders were not a measurably worse guide in rotation states, and the step-aside sector-fund strategy returned 8.2% a year, the same as always holding the 3 leaders, against 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund.

These figures describe how leadership is shifting, not why, and they do not show whether the current candidate run will confirm or what any sector or industry will return next.

October 12, 2026

Industries remain in rotation at 0.717 while the 11 sectors stay calm at 0.178 on October 12, 2026

On October 12, 2026, the sector probability was 0.178, in the Calm band, down from 0.191 on October 9 though rising over ten days. The industry probability fell from 0.879 to 0.717 but stays in the Rotation band and is also rising over ten days. Energy led the sector leaderboard and Information Technology trailed. Rotation intensity was Quiet, at the 10th percentile of its history since 1992.

The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on day 3, with a 13% chance it confirms.
Energy posted the best market-denoised residual return at 1.47% with 90% breadth; Information Technology was last at -0.83% with 32% breadth.
Among industries, Oil & Gas E&P leads with a trend score of 8.0 and all 9 members up on the last day; Computer Hardware trails at -11.1.
Semiconductors, a laggard at -5.4, had only 7% of its 14 members up on the last day.
The page states the industry grain is descriptive only and has no measured forward-looking edge.
In the backtest, the probability's skill and crossing tests are supported, but the leader-persistence test (S6) and the sector-fund switching strategy (S7, 8.2% a year vs 8.2%) are not supported.

Today's figures describe current leadership and rotation odds; they do not show why sectors or industries are moving or how they will perform next.

October 9, 2026

Industries in rotation at 0.879 on October 9, 2026, while the sector probability fell to 0.191 and stays Calm

On October 9, 2026, the two grains of this page point in different directions. The sector-level rotation probability fell to 0.191 from 0.465 the previous day and remains in the Calm band, with a flat ten-day direction. The industry-level probability rose to 0.879 from 0.768, in the Rotation band and rising over ten days, which the page describes as leadership reordering broadly within the sectors. Rotation intensity is Quiet, at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992.

The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run underway on day 2, but its chance of confirming is about 6%.
On the sector leaderboard, Real Estate (+1.67% residual, 57% breadth) and Health Care (+1.42%, 75% breadth) led; Communication Services (-0.94%) and Information Technology (-0.61%) trailed.
Among industries rotating in, Communication Equipment has the highest trend score at 10.3, with 83% of its 6 members up on the last day; Software - Infrastructure had 93% of its 15 members up.
Among industries rotating out, Telecom Services has the lowest score at -9.1; Packaged Foods had none of its 5 members up on the last day.
In the backtest, the sector probability's skill tests are supported (Brier skill 0.407, held-out 0.208; AUC 0.943), but the tests on last month's sector leaders (S6) and on the sector-fund switching strategy (S7, 8.2% a year either way vs 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund) are not supported.

The industry-level reading describes what is happening now and, by the page's own methodology, has no measured forward-looking edge, while the tested sector-level signal currently reads Calm.

October 8, 2026

October 8, 2026: industries in rotation at 0.768 while sectors stay Calm at 0.465, up sharply from 0.139

On October 8, 2026, the sector-level rotation probability rose to 0.465 from 0.139 the day before. That keeps sectors in the Calm band, which runs below 0.50. At the industry grain the probability rose to 0.768 from 0.6, placing the 42 tracked industries in the Rotation state. The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on day 1, with about a 10% chance that it confirms, and rotation intensity is Quiet at the 10th percentile of its history.

Sectors: probability 0.465, state Calm. The ten-day direction is flat, and the page describes sector leadership as stable, with dispersion well below episode thresholds.
Industries: probability 0.768, state Rotation, ten-day direction flat. The page describes leadership as reordering broadly within sectors.
On the latest day, Energy led the sector leaderboard with a 2.77% market-denoised residual return and breadth of 1.0, followed by Consumer Staples at 2.13%. Information Technology was last at -1.04%, with 39% of its stocks up.
Communication Equipment tops the industries rotating in with a trend score of 7.2, though only 17% of its members rose on the last day. Computer Hardware leads the industries rotating out at -6.6.
In the backtest, the probability itself passed its tests, including the primary Brier skill score of 0.407 (held-out 0.208). Two tests were not supported: whether last month's sector leaders are a worse guide in rotation states, and whether a leader strategy that steps aside at 0.50 beats always holding the leaders (8.2% vs 8.2% a year).

The industry-level reading describes current conditions only and has no measured forward-looking edge, and none of today's figures show why leadership is shifting.

October 7, 2026

Industry rotation probability eases to 0.60 from 0.879 while the sector grain stays Calm at 0.139

On October 7, 2026, the industry-level probability fell to 0.60 from 0.879 on October 6, moving from the Rotation band into Elevated, though its ten-day direction is flat. The 11-sector probability edged up to 0.139 from 0.113 but remains Calm and is falling over ten days. Rotation intensity is Quiet at the 10th percentile of its history since 1992, and no new candidate rotation run is open.

Health Care led the sector leaderboard with a 1.12% market-denoised residual return and 58% breadth; Industrials trailed at -1.93% with 15% breadth.
Communication Equipment tops the industries rotating in with a trend score of 9.5, and Packaging & Containers leads those rotating out at -8.0.
Computer Hardware sits among the laggards on a -6.7 score even though 88% of its 8 members rose on the last day.
Three of the top five industry leaders, including Semiconductor Equipment & Materials, had 0% or near-0% of members up on the last day, so trend scores and one-day moves diverged.
In the backtest, the probability beat the average-rate baseline (Brier skill 0.407, held-out 0.208), but the sector-fund switching strategy was not supported: 8.2% a year versus 8.2% for always holding the leaders, and 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund.
The test of whether past sector leaders are a worse guide during rotation was also not supported (rank correlation -0.008 calm versus -0.015 rotation, t 0.08).

These figures describe the current state and its backtested reliability; they do not show why industry pressure eased or whether any rotation will be confirmed.

October 6, 2026

October 6, 2026: industries move into Rotation at 0.808 while the 11 sectors stay Calm at 0.084

On October 6, 2026, the industry-level rotation probability rose to 0.808 from 0.651 the previous day, placing the 42 tracked industries in the Rotation state. The sector-level probability was 0.084, up from 0.0 the day before but falling over ten days, and the 11 sectors remain Calm. The young-rotation flag shows a candidate run on its first day, with about a 6% chance of confirming. Rotation intensity sits in the Quiet band at the 10th percentile of its history since June 25, 1992.

Utilities led the sector leaderboard with a 2.87% market-denoised residual return and 90% of its stocks up; Communication Services was last at -0.46%.
Communication Equipment topped the industries rotating in with a trend score of 10.6 and 83% of members up on the day; Packaged Foods led those rotating out at -7.1.
Information Technology posted a -0.41% residual even though 56% of its stocks rose, while within technology Communication Equipment and Software - Infrastructure scored as rotating in and Computer Hardware as rotating out.
The page notes the industry grain is descriptive only and has no measured forward-looking edge.
In the walk-forward backtest, the probability itself passed its primary test (Brier skill 0.399, held-out 0.202), but two tests were not supported: last month's sector leaders were no worse a guide in rotation states, and the step-aside sector strategy returned 8.5% a year vs 8.2% for always holding the 3 leaders and 9.8% for an S&P 500 index fund.

These figures describe how leadership is shifting today and do not show where any sector or industry will go next, or why the reordering is happening.